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Asian Crude Import Demand Long-Term May Shift Towards Non-OPEC Exports

Oil

An increasing percentage of Asia’s crude imports may be serviced by non-OPEC producers as higher growth in crude oil exports from producers such as Brazil and Canada could outpace OPEC export growth, according to the International Energy Agency’s Medium Term Oil Market Report. Net export flows from OPEC countries (driven by growth in Middle Eastern producers but offset by declines elsewhere) are set to rise by 0.5M b/d between 2016 and 2022, while in contrast output from Brazil and Canada is forecast to increase by 1.6M b/d. This would open up more export opportunities for non-OPEC exporters to supply Asia’s crude import demand which is expected to increase from 21M b/d last year to 25M b/d in 2022.