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IEA Oil Market Report Highlights


In its March Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency has kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2018 and 2019 largely unchanged at 1.3M b/d and 1.4M b/d respectively, as solid gains in non-OECD countries offset falls in Europe, OECD Asia and the Americas.

World oil production (including NGLs) was estimated to have fallen 340K b/d m-o-m to an 8-month low of 99.75M b/d in February, weighed down by deeper OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts. However, output was still about 1.6M b/d higher y-o-y, driven by solid non-OPEC increases, mainly from the US.

Estimates for non-OPEC supply growth in 2019 were left unchanged at 1.8M b/d, down from 2.8M b/d in 2018. US output is expected to expand by 1.5M b/d in 2019, accounting for 83% of total non-OPEC growth for the year, compared to a respective share of 79% in 2018.

Meanwhile, the IEA forecasts a 500K b/d supply deficit in 2Q19 on solid global oil demand growth and declines in OPEC production, mainly in Iran and Venezuela.

By early afternoon in London, ICE Brent was trading at $66.89/bbl, down $0.34/bbl from the end of Thursday’s trading day.