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EIA August STEO Highlights

Oil

In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projecting a rise in US oil production of 1.25M b/d in 2019 to a record of 12.24M b/d, slightly lower than its previous forecast for a rise of 1.28M b/d. Forecast crude production then rises by 1M b/d in 2020 to an annual average of 13.2M b/d. The slowing rate of production growth for this year reflected relatively flat oil prices and a slowdown in the number of new oil rigs in US shale formations.

Meanwhile, the EIA estimated that world oil demand will increase by 0.9M b/d in 2019, down from y-o-y growth of 1.3M b/d in 2018. This was attributed to decelerating growth in global oil-weighted GDP. However, demand was forecast to rise by 1.4M b/d y-o-y in 2020, in line with an expected recovery in global GDP growth.

By early afternoon in London, ICE Brent was trading at $63.15/bbl, up $0.77/bbl from the end of Tuesday’s trading.