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IEA September Oil Market Report Highlights

Oil

In its September Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020 largely unchanged at 1.1M b/d and 1.3M b/d respectively. Notably, demand growth was forecast to accelerate from 485K b/d y-o-y in 1H19 to 1.65M b/d in 2H19, underpinned by a weak base of demand in the second half of 2018, robust petrochemical plant additions and significantly lower oil prices y-o-y.

World oil production was estimated to have risen by 530K b/d m-o-m to a year to date high of 100.8M b/d in August, but was still 280K b/d lower y-o-y due to reductions linked to sanctions and the OPEC/non-OPEC supply curbs. Meanwhile, non-OPEC supply growth was forecast to accelerate from 1.9M b/d this year to 2.3M b/d in 2020, driven by solid output growth in the US, Norway and Brazil. According to the IEA, surging non-OPEC supply is expected to reduce demand for OPEC crude to 28.3M b/d in 1H20, which is 1.4M b/d below the group’s production in August.

By early afternoon in London, ICE Brent was trading at $63.15/bbl, up $0.77/bbl from the end of Tuesday’s trading.