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IMF Lifts 2020 Global Growth Forecast


In the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, 2020 global GDP growth was forecast at -4.4%, an improvement of 0.8 percentage points from its June report. The projection was lifted following a better-than-expected 2q20 performance. The IMF expects social distancing measures will likely remain in place into 2021, although will be loosened as vaccine coverage rises and therapies improve. The IMF anticipates 2021 GDP growth to rebound to 5.2%, inching down 0.2 percentage points from the previous report.

However, India’s 2020 forecast was revised lower to -10.3% this month, down 5.8 percentage points from June, with the country’s GDP shrinking more than anticipated in the 2q. Nonetheless, growth is expected to rebound to 8.8% in 2021.

Elsewhere, China is expected to grow by a slim 1.9% this year (revised up 0.9 percentage points from June), with an improvement to 8.2% in the 2021 forecast.