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EIA lowers global crude oil demand forecasts


The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its global crude oil demand forecast for 2020 down by 70K b/d from its previous report to an average of 93.1M b/d, a decline of 8.3M b/d from 2019 levels. Global demand for 2021 was also revised to 570K b/d lower than August’s report, however it is estimated that consumption will rise by 6.5M b/d y-o-y to 99.6M b/d. Much of this downward revision in 2021 is attributed to lower expected demand growth in China, who the EIA now predicts will experience a demand growth of 1.1M b/d y-o-y to 15M b/d.

US crude oil production increased by 60K b/d m-o-m to 10.8M b/d in August, as gradually rising oil prices encouraged operators to bring wells back online, according to data from the latest STEO. Production is expected to rise by 40K b/d m-o-m to 11.2M b/d in September, before falling to 11.06M b/d by December. Year-on-year, production is expected to decline by 860K b/d to an average of 11.4M b/d in 2020, and then by a further 310K b/d to 11.08M b/d in 2021.