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OECD Forecasts Unbalanced Economic Recovery


In the OECD’s December Economic Outlook, the organisation downgraded its estimate for world GDP growth in 2021 by 0.2 percentage points (pp) from its previous outlook in May to 5.6%, citing an unbalanced recovery across global markets. Meanwhile, global GDP growth is expected to reach 4.5% in 2022, up 0.1 pp from the previous forecast.

The 2021 Chinese economic growth projection was revised down 0.4 pp to 8.1%, with growth expected to slow to 5.1% in 2022, down 0.7 pp on the May forecast. There were also downward revisions for the US (to 5.6%) and Japan (to 1.8%) in 2021, while 2022 growth expectations for the two countries were set at 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively.

Euro area GDP growth is projected to exceed the May forecast by 0.9 pp at 5.2% in 2021. The outlook for growth in 2022 remains almost unchanged at 4.3%.