IEA lowers 2021 demand forecast following coronavirus resurgence

Oil

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2021 by 280K b/d to 96.6M b/d compared to its previous report, stating that the current resurgence in coronavirus cases will continue to dampen demand into the coming months. The limiting of mobility amidst escalating Covid-19 cases is set to remain as the main factor impacting oil demand, before a widespread vaccination roll-out is expected to lead a recovery in the second half of the year. Under this prediction global demand will only recover by 5.5M b/d y-o-y in 2021, after previously declining by an unprecedented 8.8M b/d y-o-y in 2020.  

Global refinery throughput is predicted to increase by 4.5M b/d y-o-y to 78.9M b/d in 2021, rebounding after tumbling by 7.3M b/d y-o-y in 2020. Refinery inputs shot up by 2.6M b/d m-o-m in November, as the peak maintenance season came to an end and colder weather in Europe and Asia bolstered diesel and kerosene use.