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IMF Keeps 2021 Global Growth Forecast Stable, Lifts 2022


In the IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, 2021 global GDP growth was forecast at 6.0%, unchanged from its April report. A downgrade in prospects for emerging market and developing economies was offset by a rise in prospects for advanced economies, largely because of divergences in Covid vaccination rates and policies.

The outlook for 2022 growth was placed at 4.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from April, amid an improved outlook for advanced economies, especially the US, following a more consistent response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

For India, the severe second wave of Covid-19 during March-May led to a 2021 GDP growth downgrade of 3.0 percentage points relative to the April forecast to 9.5%, with China downgraded by a more a modest 0.3 percentage points to 8.1%.

However, the US growth forecast for 2021 was lifted by 0.6 percentage points to 7.0%, with the EU forecast lifted 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%.