Russian seaborne crude oil exports to fall in 2Q 2021

Oil

Russia’s seaborne exports of crude oil are set to decrease by 152K b/d q-o-q and 211K b/d y-o-y to average 2.74M b/d across 2Q 2021, according to Energy Intelligence reporting on preliminary port loading programs issued by national pipeline monopoly Transneft. This decline is expected to take place despite the recently agreed 130K b/d increase to the country’s OPEC+ output quota from April, as producers prioritise meeting rising domestic demand amid the upcoming refinery maintenance season.

Loadings from the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk are due to fall by 98K b/d q-o-q and 80K b/d q-o-q to 772K b/d and 611K b/d respectively, with exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk also expected to decrease by 48K b/d q-o-q to 644K b/d as European demand continues to be suppressed by coronavirus lockdown measures. Shipments from Kozmino are set to rise by 74K b/d q-o-q to 708K b/d however, as increasing production from some oilfields in Eastern Siberia is allowing Russian companies to capitalise on strong Asian demand.