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OPEC raises its own crude oil supply forecast for 2021


In its May Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) OPEC has upwardly revised the forecast for its member’s crude supply in 2021 by 230K b/d compared to its previous report to 27.7M b/d, whilst lowering non-OPEC supply by a similar amount to 63.6M b/d. Supplies from the Americas and Europe led the non-OPEC downward revision, referencing slashed production in the US during the February cold weather snap and seasonal maintenance in Norway during Q2 and Q3 of 2021.

OPEC has maintained its previous total crude oil demand forecast at an average of 96.5M b/d across 2021, a growth of 5.9M b/d y-o-y, with the figure reaching 99.7M b/d by Q4 2021. India led the downward demand revision for the year, being lowered by 110K b/d m-o-m to 4.88M b/d due to ‘severe COVID-19-related challenges’, whereas the US had its forecast lifted by 30K b/d m-o-m to 19.94M b/d based on strong economic indicators and demand for petrochemical feedstock.