Russian crude exports to fall in February

Oil

Russian seaborne crude oil exports are expected to decline by 100K b/d m-o-m to 2.12M b/d in February, according to Energy Intelligence reporting on preliminary port loading programs issued by national pipeline monopoly Transneft. Shipments are expected to be restrained by pressure from the Russian government to ensure stable domestic product supplies and prices. Despite this decline exports are still set to rise by 580K b/d y-o-y, supported by increased output in line with the OPEC+ production agreement.

Total exports from Russian ports, including the transshipment of volumes from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are expected to fall by 120K b/d m-o-m to a five-month low of 2.4M b/d in February. Loadings from the Baltic are set to decline by 130K b/d m-o-m to 1.31M b/d, with exports from Kozmino also predicted to decline by 60K b/d m-o-m to 680K b/d. Shipments from the Black Sea are set to rise by 80K b/d m-o-m to an eight-month high of 410K b/d however.