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IEA revises down 2022 global oil demand forecast


In its latest Oil Market Report the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2022 by 950K b/d from its previous report, stating that surging energy and commodity prices, as well as widening sanctions against Russia, are expected to slash global consumption. Following this revision, global oil demand is now set to average 99.6M b/d in 2022, representing growth of 2.1M b/d y-o-y but a decline of 800K b/d compared with 2019 levels. Initial estimates from the IEA assume that around 3M b/d of Russian oil could be halted from April as sanctions tighten and market participants avoid Russian barrels. This is projected to result in a reduction in total exports of around 2.5M b/d, of which crude and oil products account for 1.5M b/d and 1M b/d, respectively. Global refinery crude throughput estimates for 2022 have also been lowered by around 900K b/d compared to the IEA’s previous report, with a 1.1M b/d reduction in Russian runs outweighing gains made elsewhere. Global refinery intake is now set to rise by 2.9M b/d y-o-y to 80.8M b/d in 2022, however this remains down by 1.3M b/d compared with 2019.