USDA Cuts Grain Trade Forecasts
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has slashed its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2021/22 market year (Oct-Sept) by 6.0 Mt to 27.5 Mt citing the suspension of port operations in the Black Sea. US exporters are expected to benefit from reduced competition, with projected shipments lifted by 2.0 Mt to 63.5 Mt. Russia’s corn export forecast is unchanged at 4.5 Mt.
Port closures were again cited as the USDA cut forecasts for Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports in 2021/22 (Jul-Jun) by 4.0 Mt and 3.0 Mt to a respective 20.0 Mt and 32.0 Mt. Economic sanctions are also expected to weigh on Russian volumes. It is anticipated Australia and India will ramp up shipments in response, with the latter’s exports projected at a new high of 10.0 Mt.
Meanwhile, a downgrade to harvest expectations saw Brazil’s 2021/22 (Oct-Sept) soyabean export forecast cut by 5.0 Mt to 85.5 Mt.