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USDA 2022/23 Grain Trade Forecasts

Grain

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global wheat exports at a record 205.3 Mt in the 2022/23 market year (Jul/Jun), up 3.7 Mt year-on-year, with Russia expected to be the largest exporter at 39.0 Mt. Canada is forecast to sharply increase shipments to 24.0 Mt, up 8.5 Mt, after a heatwave damaged crops this year. Ukrainian exports are projected at a nine-year low of just 10.0 Mt.

In contrast, corn trade is expected to fall 7.2 Mt to 183.2 Mt in 2022/23 (Oct/Sept) largely due to a projected 14.0 Mt drop in Ukrainian exports to just 9.0 Mt. Partially countering this decline, Brazil is expected to increase exports by 12.5 Mt to 46.5 Mt after drought curtailed shipments this year.

Soyabean exports are projected at a record 170.0 Mt in 2022/23 (Oct/Sept), 14.4 Mt above the year before. Brazil is expected to increase exports by 5.8 Mt to 88.5 Mt while Chinese imports are expected to rise 7.0 Mt to 99.0 Mt.